Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Aug 2?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 6 models put Los Angeles's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 86° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. ERA5 says the day verified at 94° — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 14° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 86° | 93° | 95° | 94° | 88° | — | 86–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 80° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 89° | 92° | 80–97° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 78° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 89° | 91° | 78–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 78° | 99° | 95° | 95° | 89° | 95° | 78–99° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 79° | 98° | 92° | 97° | 88° | 92° | 79–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 87° | 79° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 87° | 93° | 79–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 80° | 94° | 92° | 91° | 87° | 93° | 80–94° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.