Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Aug 24?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
5 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 91° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 94° against the ORL observations — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-19 | 92° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 99° | 93° | 96° | 91–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-20 | 91° | 94° | 92° | 88° | 97° | 94° | 91° | 88–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-21 | 91° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 98° | 97° | 97° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-22 | 91° | 94° | 91° | 93° | 99° | 96° | 93° | 91–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-23 | 91° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 97° | 93° | 96° | 88–97° |
| 0d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 94° | 89° | 92° | 96° | 90° | 94° | 88–96° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.