Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Aug 24?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

5 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 33° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the ORL observations — thunderstorms.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

5 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-08-19	33°	34°	33°	33°	37°	34°	36°	33–37°
4d · 2026-08-20	33°	35°	33°	31°	36°	35°	33°	31–36°
3d · 2026-08-21	33°	35°	33°	33°	37°	36°	36°	33–37°
2d · 2026-08-22	33°	34°	33°	34°	37°	35°	34°	33–37°
1d · 2026-08-23	33°	34°	32°	31°	36°	34°	36°	31–36°
0d · 2026-08-24	31°	35°	32°	34°	36°	32°	34°	31–36°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.