Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 22?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
3 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 22 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 94° against the ORL observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-19 | 90° | 94° | 89° | 90° | 98° | 93° | 95° | 89–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-20 | 90° | 94° | 91° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 90–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-21 | 91° | 94° | 90° | 96° | 99° | 94° | 96° | 90–99° |
| 0d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 96° | 88° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 96° | 88–98° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.