Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 22?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

3 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 22 high anywhere from 32° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 34° against the ORL observations, with 1.8 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-19	32°	34°	32°	32°	37°	34°	35°	32–37°
2d · 2026-08-20	32°	34°	33°	35°	36°	36°	35°	32–36°
1d · 2026-08-21	33°	34°	32°	35°	37°	34°	36°	32–37°
0d · 2026-08-22	32°	35°	31°	35°	37°	34°	36°	31–37°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.