Was the forecast right for Orlando on Wed Aug 5?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 85° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. ERA5 says the day verified at 87° with 0.23 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-21 | — | 93° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-22 | 85° | 88° | 89° | — | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 13d · 2026-07-23 | 91° | 93° | 84° | — | 98° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 12d · 2026-07-24 | 91° | 86° | 89° | — | 95° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 11d · 2026-07-25 | 91° | 91° | 91° | — | 98° | — | — | 91–98° |
| 10d · 2026-07-26 | 93° | 92° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 90–93° |
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 91° | 95° | 89° | 94° | 102° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 94° | 88° | 90° | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 97° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 95° | 92° | 90° | 86–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 90° | 88° | 95° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 87–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 90° | 88° | 88–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 88° | 86° | 94° | 98° | 90° | 90° | 86–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 87° | 87° | 87° | 85° | 92° | 85° | 89° | 85–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 87° | 89° | 84° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 84–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 85–89° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.