Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 1?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 82° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. ERA5 says the day verified at 87° with 0.59 in of precipitation — rain.
GEM landed closest, off by 2.4°. GFS ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 88° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 88° | 87° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 82° | 87° | 87° | — | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 84° | 88° | 83° | — | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 83° | 83° | 88° | — | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 87° | 86° | 79° | — | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 89° | 85° | 88° | 89° | 81° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 82° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 82° | 84° | 85° | 90° | 80° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 82° | 85° | 87° | 88° | 95° | 85° | 84° | 82–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 86° | 84° | 90° | 95° | 90° | 83° | 83–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 96° | 83° | 86° | 83–96° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 96° | 89° | 91° | 84–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 98° | 88° | 84° | 84–98° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 93° | 86° | 90° | 90° | 91° | 94° | 86–94° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 91° | 83° | 89° | 96° | 90° | 93° | 82–96° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.