Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Jul 31?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 83° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.12 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-17 | 83° | 92° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 13d · 2026-07-18 | 84° | 89° | 92° | — | 100° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-19 | 81° | 93° | 87° | — | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 11d · 2026-07-20 | 84° | 87° | 88° | — | 98° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 10d · 2026-07-21 | 84° | 83° | 85° | — | 99° | — | — | 83–99° |
| 9d · 2026-07-22 | 92° | 83° | 92° | 90° | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 8d · 2026-07-23 | 88° | 84° | 84° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-24 | 85° | 82° | 78° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 6d · 2026-07-25 | 84° | 83° | 80° | 94° | 93° | 85° | 85° | 80–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 86° | 83° | 84° | 89° | 98° | 88° | 84° | 83–98° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 89° | 84° | 86° | 94° | 88° | 84° | 84–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 90° | 87° | 82° | 91° | 89° | 93° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 91° | 86° | 85° | 96° | 88° | 87° | 85–96° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 82° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 82–90° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 92° | 89° | 87° | 93° | 87° | 88° | 86–93° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.