Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Jul 20?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 87° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.14 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-17 | 89° | 87° | 89° | 91° | 97° | 90° | 97° | 87–97° |
| 2d · 2026-07-18 | 89° | 90° | 86° | 96° | 98° | 94° | 93° | 86–98° |
| 1d · 2026-07-19 | 91° | 89° | 89° | 96° | 93° | 91° | 91° | 89–96° |
| 0d · 2026-07-20 | 89° | 89° | 88° | 93° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 88–96° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.