Which weather model is most accurate in Buffalo?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Buffalo at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against ERA5 reanalysis once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-12 to 2026-08-11), for daily high temperature.
One day out, DWD ICON has been most accurate (typical miss 1.32°F); at three days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.93°F); at seven days, NOAA AIGFS (AI) (2.72°F).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 3.04°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.94°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DWD ICON | 1.3° (+0.8°) | 2.0° (+0.7°) | — | 31 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.4° (+0.3°) | 2.3° (+0.4°) | 3.6° (+0.3°) | 31 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.5° (+0.3°) | 1.9° (-0.1°) | 2.9° (+0.9°) | 31 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.8° (+0.2°) | 2.0° (-0.2°) | 2.7° (-0.4°) | 31 |
| UKMO (UK) | 2.7° (+2.7°) | 3.0° (+2.9°) | — | 31 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.0° (+2.8°) | 3.4° (+3.0°) | 4.8° (+3.7°) | 31 |
| GEM (Canada) | 3.2° (+3.0°) | 2.8° (-2.5°) | 3.1° (-2.3°) | 31 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.3° (+0.2°) | 1.9° (-0.2°) | 2.3° (-0.7°) | 31 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 0.9° (-0.0°) | 1.6° (+0.0°) | 2.0° (-0.0°) | 31 |
Method, honestly
Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily highs.Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 71–84; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 5°F hot.
- Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 70–86; it hit 78. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
- Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 75–86; it hit 78. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
- Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 79–84; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
- Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 82–84; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
- Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 77–83; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 4°F hot.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 73–82; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 70–81; it hit 76. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 85. ICON led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 3°F hot.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 77–84; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 73–81; it hit 79. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 6°F hot.
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