Which weather model is most accurate in Houston?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Houston at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against ERA5 reanalysis once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-12 to 2026-08-11), for daily high temperature.
One day out, ECMWF IFS has been most accurate (typical miss 1.65°F); at three days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.85°F); at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (2.64°F).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 5.36°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.16°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF IFS | 1.6° (-0.5°) | 2.1° (-0.0°) | 2.6° (+0.4°) | 31 |
| DWD ICON | 1.7° (+0.8°) | 2.5° (+1.7°) | — | 31 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.8° (+0.2°) | 2.3° (-0.2°) | 3.5° (-0.5°) | 31 |
| NOAA GFS | 1.9° (+0.5°) | 5.8° (+5.4°) | 6.6° (+6.4°) | 31 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.9° (-1.4°) | 1.9° (-1.1°) | 2.6° (-1.6°) | 31 |
| GEM (Canada) | 2.2° (+1.5°) | 2.1° (+0.9°) | 2.9° (+1.1°) | 31 |
| UKMO (UK) | 2.7° (+2.5°) | 3.0° (+3.0°) | — | 31 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.4° (-0.6°) | 1.8° (+0.1°) | 2.9° (+0.5°) | 31 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.2° (+0.0°) | 1.3° (+0.0°) | 2.4° (+0.0°) | 31 |
Method, honestly
Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily highs.Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 90–102; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 6°F hot.
- Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 90–99; it hit 94. GEM led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cold.
- Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 86–98; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
- Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 86–103; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 1.5°F); AIGFS ran 7°F hot.
- Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 87–103; it hit 96. UKMO led (off 0.0°F).
- Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 89–102; it hit 96. GEM led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 3°F cold.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 89–101; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 91–100; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 94–105; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 94–102; it hit 98. GEM led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 93–103; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
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