Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Aug 9?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 71° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-07-27 | 78° | 71° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 12d · 2026-07-28 | 77° | 78° | 81° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 11d · 2026-07-29 | 74° | 78° | 82° | — | 80° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 10d · 2026-07-30 | 79° | 79° | 76° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 9d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 81° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-01 | 81° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 79° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 7d · 2026-08-02 | 82° | 78° | 79° | 74° | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 6d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 88° | 86° | — | 74–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 80° | 79° | 76° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 4d · 2026-08-05 | 80° | 83° | 79° | 77° | 85° | 82° | 80° | 77–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 79° | 77° | 76° | 85° | 80° | 80° | 76–85° |
| 2d · 2026-08-07 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 77° | 85° | 80° | 80° | 77–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-08 | 79° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 79–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-09 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 82° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 79–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.