Which weather model is most accurate in Berlin?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Berlin at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the EDDB observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-30 to 2026-08-28), for daily high temperature.
One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (2.06°C).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 1.26°C at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.63°C typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DWD ICON | 0.9° (-0.4°) | 1.3° (-0.1°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.9° (-0.5°) | 1.2° (+0.2°) | 2.9° (+2.2°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 1.0° (-0.6°) | 1.4° (-0.5°) | — | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 1.1° (+0.6°) | 1.8° (+1.3°) | 3.9° (+2.5°) | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.1° (-1.0°) | 1.2° (-0.8°) | 2.1° (+0.2°) | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.2° (-0.7°) | 1.4° (-0.3°) | 3.2° (+0.2°) | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 1.4° (-0.4°) | 1.5° (-0.4°) | 3.3° (+0.1°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 0.6° (+0.0°) | 1.0° (+0.0°) | 2.4° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Berlin point is the Berlin Brandenburg station (EDDB), 18 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is EDDB observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the consensus row at the bottom of the table — The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — is shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. NBM, the US official blend these pages benchmark against elsewhere, covers the United States only and has no row for this city. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Other cities
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.