Region Europe
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Showing Tuesday 6 October only — the other 14 days did not load. Reload the page to play them.
GFS · Run 12Z 2 Oct · Valid Tue 6 Oct lowest of 4 × 6 h minima
Mildest 27.8 °C · coldest -11.4 °C
Mildest 25.2 °C · coldest -13.2 °C
Mildest 25.6 °C · coldest -15.1 °C
Mildest 25.6 °C · coldest -15.5 °C
Mildest 25.4 °C · coldest -16.1 °C
Mildest 25.0 °C · coldest -17.3 °C
Mildest 26.0 °C · coldest -21.9 °C
Mildest 26.2 °C · coldest -22.9 °C
Mildest 26.2 °C · coldest -23.9 °C
Mildest 26.0 °C · coldest -22.7 °C
Mildest 26.3 °C · coldest -21.6 °C
Mildest 26.3 °C · coldest -18.2 °C
Mildest 28.1 °C · coldest -18.8 °C
Mildest 27.5 °C · coldest -17.1 °C
Mildest 27.1 °C · coldest -16.2 °C
The lowest temperature each point reaches over the whole of the day you choose.
Methodology
A day here runs 00Z to 00Z. The model files its minima in 6-hour blocks, so this is the lowest of 4 of them, and each column takes the 4 covering its own local day rather than one window for the whole continent. These are the model's own minima, so a low here can read a little colder than the same model's on a city's forecast, which is the coldest of its hourly values. The dashed line, when it appears, is 0 °C.
At six hours the blocks are coarser than the four and a half hours of solar time the map spans, so in practice almost every column lands on the same ones — the per-column choice is what keeps that true rather than lucky. It is the ECMWF map, over the nearer days where its blocks are finer, that changes the picture.
GFS. Of the four models on these pages, two file a daily extremum at all — GFS in 6-hour blocks; ECMWF in 3-hour blocks out to day 6 and 6-hour beyond. The other two publish temperature at instants, from which a daily low cannot honestly be recovered. The switch above draws the same day from the other one.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of NOAA. The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- NOAA: GFS, from NOAA's NOMADS server. US government data, not subject to copyright (NOAA/NWS terms of use).
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.