MSLP + precip rate
GEM · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
Region Europe
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
GEM · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.289 in/h, near 41.85N 34.35E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.272 in/h, near 42.0N 34.65E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.179 in/h, near 43.35N 41.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.14 in/h, near 67.2N 16.2E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.156 in/h, near 46.8N 40.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.404 in/h, near 41.7N 29.85E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.499 in/h, near 40.35N 28.2E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.311 in/h, near 40.35N 28.2E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.267 in/h, near 40.05N 28.2E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.426 in/h, near 63.6N 19.2W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.539 in/h, near 43.2N 30.6E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.394 in/h, near 43.8N 31.95E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.545 in/h, near 39.45N 2.1E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.815 in/h, near 63.6N 19.35W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.579 in/h, near 64.05N 16.95W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.757 in/h, near 43.35N 6.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.38 in/h, near 43.35N 6.45E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.789 in/h, near 64.05N 16.95W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.526 in/h, near 64.05N 16.8W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.431 in/h, near 41.85N 7.2E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One GEM run — issued 12Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 120 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 4 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 120 hours. GEM forecasts out to 240 hours; this film stops at 120. The frames past the one shown load on demand. GEM publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of Environment and Climate Change Canada. The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: GEM, from the MSC Datamart. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, under its Data Services End-use Licence.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.