MSLP + precip rate
Region Europe
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Fri 00Z 16 Oct
ECMWF AIFS · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Fri 00Z 16 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.174 in/h, near 43.25N 35.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.088 in/h, near 43.5N 39.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.061 in/h, near 36.5N 35.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.064 in/h, near 37.0N 31.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.078 in/h, near 37.0N 31.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.077 in/h, near 39.0N 23.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.08 in/h, near 37.5N 35.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.105 in/h, near 41.5N 29.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.182 in/h, near 63.75N 19.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.213 in/h, near 41.75N 31.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.121 in/h, near 42.25N 32.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.201 in/h, near 64.25N 17.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.177 in/h, near 39.5N 0.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.211 in/h, near 39.5N 0.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.17 in/h, near 39.75N 1.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.257 in/h, near 43.75N 3.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.227 in/h, near 44.0N 3.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.142 in/h, near 43.25N 6.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.106 in/h, near 43.0N 6.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.131 in/h, near 44.25N 8.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.178 in/h, near 45.75N 8.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.163 in/h, near 46.0N 8.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.155 in/h, near 46.25N 13.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.152 in/h, near 46.25N 13.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.202 in/h, near 42.5N 19.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.14 in/h, near 42.25N 19.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.063 in/h, near 42.0N 19.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.079 in/h, near 58.75N 8.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.101 in/h, near 48.75N 13.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.141 in/h, near 51.75N 9.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.125 in/h, near 54.5N 7.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.127 in/h, near 42.25N 8.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.103 in/h, near 59.0N 10.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.155 in/h, near 65.0N 13.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.09 in/h, near 64.5N 15.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.107 in/h, near 48.5N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.188 in/h, near 51.25N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.193 in/h, near 53.25N 24.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.158 in/h, near 51.75N 10.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.106 in/h, near 55.0N 4.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.074 in/h, near 48.0N 4.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.086 in/h, near 38.0N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.085 in/h, near 58.5N 7.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.07 in/h, near 60.25N 5.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.065 in/h, near 55.25N 3.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.086 in/h, near 61.75N 4.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.123 in/h, near 60.5N 5.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.083 in/h, near 36.0N 29.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 36.25N 31.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.114 in/h, near 35.5N 24.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.108 in/h, near 35.5N 24.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.113 in/h, near 35.5N 24.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 58.5N 7.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.077 in/h, near 60.25N 9.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.063 in/h, near 35.75N 34.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.131 in/h, near 48.5N 23.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.11 in/h, near 48.75N 18.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.093 in/h, near 36.25N 34.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.086 in/h, near 37.75N 38.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.061 in/h, near 35.5N 42.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 18Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.