MSLP + precip rate
ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 18Z 14 Oct
Region Europe
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 18Z 14 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.202 in/h, near 41.5N 29.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.147 in/h, near 41.0N 29.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.216 in/h, near 40.75N 29.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.18 in/h, near 60.25N 6.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.175 in/h, near 42.0N 33.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.127 in/h, near 46.5N 36.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.073 in/h, near 43.25N 40.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.057 in/h, near 57.75N 12.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.06 in/h, near 37.0N 31.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.075 in/h, near 37.0N 31.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.115 in/h, near 42.0N 30.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.078 in/h, near 42.5N 30.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.07 in/h, near 41.25N 30.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.153 in/h, near 63.75N 19.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.137 in/h, near 69.5N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.118 in/h, near 39.5N 0.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.2 in/h, near 64.25N 17.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.18 in/h, near 40.0N 1.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.207 in/h, near 40.25N 1.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.161 in/h, near 40.75N 1.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.167 in/h, near 43.5N 3.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.153 in/h, near 43.5N 3.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.163 in/h, near 43.75N 3.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.182 in/h, near 43.75N 3.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.102 in/h, near 43.5N 6.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.104 in/h, near 44.5N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.08 in/h, near 45.5N 5.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.088 in/h, near 44.5N 4.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.083 in/h, near 39.25N 13.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.085 in/h, near 40.0N 12.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.118 in/h, near 45.25N 14.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.107 in/h, near 42.25N 18.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.112 in/h, near 42.25N 18.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.125 in/h, near 42.25N 18.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.097 in/h, near 54.25N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.081 in/h, near 36.25N 4.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.102 in/h, near 51.75N 10.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.098 in/h, near 37.75N 3.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.105 in/h, near 38.0N 4.75E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.099 in/h, near 62.5N 19.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 64.5N 15.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.093 in/h, near 36.5N 15.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.139 in/h, near 43.25N 24.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.102 in/h, near 43.75N 19.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.095 in/h, near 58.75N 3.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.098 in/h, near 41.75N 21.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.174 in/h, near 38.25N 25.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.194 in/h, near 45.0N 11.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.138 in/h, near 49.5N 4.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.155 in/h, near 58.5N 6.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.221 in/h, near 58.5N 7.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.198 in/h, near 41.0N 8.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.141 in/h, near 40.25N 7.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.134 in/h, near 43.25N 5.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.174 in/h, near 42.0N 35.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.122 in/h, near 66.75N 14.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.071 in/h, near 61.75N 5.5E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.068 in/h, near 66.5N 14.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.114 in/h, near 36.75N 31.25E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.195 in/h, near 37.0N 31.0E · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 12Z 14 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.