Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sun Sep 20?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 86° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the TPA observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 90° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 89–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 90° | 92° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 89° | 89° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 89° | 88° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 90° | 91° | 87° | — | 97° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 91° | 88° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 86° | 89° | 89° | — | 91° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 86° | 86° | 89° | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 88° | 87° | 90° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 92° | 87° | 90° | 92° | 89° | — | 87–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 87–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 87° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 86–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 88° | 93° | 91° | 86° | 86–93° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 86° | 91° | 87° | 89° | 92° | 88° | 86° | 86–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.