Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Oct 15?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 67° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 82° against the STL observations, with 0.59 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 56° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 67° | 68° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 53° | 51° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 51–84° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 71° | 57° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 57–76° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 80° | 55° | 77° | — | 61° | — | — | 55–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 70° | 74° | 86° | — | 71° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 68° | 66° | 60° | 68° | 83° | — | — | 60–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 62° | 78° | 67° | 59° | 96° | — | — | 59–96° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 87° | 78° | 69° | 94° | — | — | 65–94° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 62° | 82° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 65° | 68° | 62–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 66° | 70° | 78° | 78° | 69° | 82° | 70° | 66–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 74° | 80° | 73° | 74° | 71° | 70° | 70–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 71° | 82° | 74° | 90° | 73° | 81° | 71–90° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 75° | 74° | 80° | 77° | 86° | 77° | 79° | 74–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 76° | 77° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 76° | 77° | 76–84° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.