Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Oct 15?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 20° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 28° against the STL observations, with 15.0 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 13° | — | — | 20° | — | — | 13–20° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 20° | 20° | 22° | — | 24° | — | — | 20–24° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 12° | 11° | 28° | — | 29° | — | — | 11–29° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 22° | 14° | 24° | — | 22° | — | — | 14–24° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 27° | 13° | 25° | — | 16° | — | — | 13–27° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 21° | 24° | 30° | — | 22° | — | — | 21–30° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 20° | 19° | 16° | 20° | 28° | — | — | 16–28° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 17° | 26° | 19° | 15° | 36° | — | — | 15–36° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 18° | 30° | 25° | 20° | 34° | — | — | 18–34° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 17° | 28° | 23° | 24° | 23° | 18° | 20° | 17–28° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 19° | 21° | 26° | 26° | 21° | 28° | 21° | 19–28° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 22° | 23° | 27° | 23° | 24° | 21° | 21° | 21–27° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 22° | 28° | 23° | 32° | 23° | 27° | 22–32° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 24° | 23° | 27° | 25° | 30° | 25° | 26° | 23–30° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 24° | 25° | 27° | 29° | 28° | 24° | 25° | 24–29° |
| actual | 28° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.