Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Mon Oct 12?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 64° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 92° against the STL observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 73° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 64° | 74° | — | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 58° | 76° | 78° | — | 73° | — | — | 58–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 57° | 74° | 82° | — | 63° | — | — | 57–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 79° | 76° | 86° | — | 81° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 79° | 90° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 85° | 86° | 75° | 81° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 71° | 83° | 75° | 82° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 90° | 87° | 80° | 78° | 89° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 89° | 87° | 80° | 76° | 90° | 91° | 79° | 76–91° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 89° | 88° | 84° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 84–92° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 90° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 94° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 89° | 89° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 93° | 89° | 89–93° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 89° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 88–92° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 89° | 88° | 91° | 90° | 93° | 92° | 89° | 88–93° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.