Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Mon Oct 12?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 18° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the STL observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 23° | — | — | 27° | — | — | 23–27° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 25° | 18° | 24° | — | 31° | — | — | 18–31° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 15° | 24° | 25° | — | 23° | — | — | 15–25° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 14° | 23° | 28° | — | 17° | — | — | 14–28° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 26° | 24° | 30° | — | 27° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 27° | 26° | 32° | — | 23° | — | — | 23–32° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 24° | 30° | 30° | 24° | 27° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 23° | 22° | 28° | 24° | 28° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 32° | 30° | 27° | 26° | 32° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 32° | 30° | 27° | 25° | 32° | 33° | 26° | 25–33° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 32° | 31° | 29° | 31° | 33° | 33° | 32° | 29–33° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 32° | 31° | 33° | 32° | 33° | 34° | 31° | 31–34° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 32° | 32° | 33° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 32° | 32–34° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 32° | 32° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 33° | 31° | 31–34° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 32° | 31° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 33° | 32° | 31–34° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.