Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Oct 9?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 64° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 88° against the STL observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 67° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 75° | 64° | 75° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 64° | 73° | 70° | — | 68° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 67° | 81° | 51° | — | 57° | — | — | 51–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 77° | 65° | — | 76° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 85° | 74° | 73° | — | 74° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 88° | 89° | 74° | 81° | 85° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 81° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 89° | 85° | 84° | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 80° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 75° | 76° | 75–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 80° | 84° | 90° | 80° | 78° | 75° | 75–90° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 81° | 81° | 85° | 78° | 84° | 81° | 73° | 73–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 81° | 85° | 87° | 91° | 84° | 82° | 81–91° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 90° | 90° | 84° | 83–90° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 86° | 85° | 85° | 89° | 90° | 89° | 86° | 85–90° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.