Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Oct 9?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 18° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 31° against the STL observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 19° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 19–26° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 24° | 18° | 24° | — | 23° | — | — | 18–24° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 18° | 23° | 21° | — | 20° | — | — | 18–23° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 20° | 27° | 10° | — | 14° | — | — | 10–27° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 24° | 25° | 18° | — | 24° | — | — | 18–25° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 30° | 23° | 23° | — | 23° | — | — | 23–30° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 31° | 32° | 23° | 27° | 29° | — | — | 23–32° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 27° | 32° | 29° | 31° | 27° | — | — | 27–32° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 25° | 31° | 30° | 29° | 32° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 27° | 27° | 29° | 30° | 29° | 24° | 24° | 24–30° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 25° | 27° | 29° | 32° | 26° | 26° | 24° | 24–32° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 27° | 27° | 30° | 26° | 29° | 27° | 23° | 23–30° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 29° | 27° | 29° | 31° | 33° | 29° | 28° | 27–33° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 30° | 28° | 29° | 30° | 32° | 32° | 29° | 28–32° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 32° | 32° | 30° | 29–32° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.