Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Oct 1?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 72° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 90° against the STL observations, with 0.21 in of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 2.1°. ECMWF ran 13° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 74° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 79° | 84° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 85° | 78° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 57° | 77° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 72° | 78° | 67° | — | 95° | — | — | 67–95° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 69° | 75° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 68° | 87° | 76° | 90° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 84° | 82° | 70° | 68° | 75° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 86° | 72° | 71° | 92° | — | — | 71–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 87° | 85° | 82° | 78° | 87° | 80° | 71–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 83° | 89° | 84° | 84° | 79° | 86° | 77° | 77–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 89° | 88° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 78° | 78–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 85° | 78° | 78–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 85° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 81° | 82° | 81–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 86° | 86° | 77° | 92° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 77–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.