Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Oct 1?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 22° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 32° against the STL observations, with 5.3 mm of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.2°. ECMWF ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 23° | — | — | 23° | — | — | 23–23° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 26° | 29° | 22° | — | 23° | — | — | 22–29° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 29° | 25° | 24° | — | 29° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 19° | 14° | 25° | — | 14° | — | — | 14–25° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 22° | 26° | 20° | — | 35° | — | — | 20–35° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 20° | 21° | 24° | — | 27° | — | — | 20–27° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 24° | 20° | 30° | 24° | 32° | — | — | 20–32° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 29° | 28° | 21° | 20° | 24° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 32° | 30° | 22° | 21° | 33° | — | — | 21–33° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 22° | 31° | 30° | 28° | 26° | 30° | 27° | 22–31° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 28° | 32° | 29° | 29° | 26° | 30° | 25° | 25–32° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 31° | 31° | 31° | 30° | 30° | 28° | 26° | 26–31° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 31° | 31° | 30° | 31° | 32° | 30° | 26° | 26–32° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 31° | 27° | 28° | 27–32° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 30° | 30° | 25° | 33° | 27° | 26° | 28° | 25–33° |
| actual | 32° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.