Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Sep 25?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 68° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 72° against the STL observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 69° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 69–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 74° | 68° | — | 96° | — | — | 68–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 86° | 72° | 72° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 81° | 80° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 83° | 81° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 91° | 84° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 74° | 69° | 77° | 89° | — | — | 69–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 72° | 66° | 76° | 78° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 69° | 72° | 70° | 77° | 73° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 67° | 72° | 75° | 70° | 72° | 77° | 67–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 73° | 76° | 75° | 80° | 73° | 76° | 69–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 72° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 80° | 77° | 75° | 72–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 80° | 74° | 76° | 73–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 73° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 73–77° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 73° | 74° | 79° | 78° | 73° | 75° | 71–79° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.