Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Sep 25?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 20° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 23°. The day verified at 22° against the STL observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 21° | — | — | 33° | — | — | 21–33° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 27° | 23° | 20° | — | 36° | — | — | 20–36° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 30° | 22° | 22° | — | 31° | — | — | 22–31° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 31° | 27° | 27° | — | 18° | — | — | 18–31° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 23° | 28° | 27° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 31° | 33° | 29° | — | 33° | — | — | 29–33° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 21° | 23° | 20° | 25° | 32° | — | — | 20–32° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 20° | 22° | 19° | 25° | 25° | — | — | 19–25° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 20° | 22° | 21° | 25° | 23° | — | — | 20–25° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 21° | 19° | 22° | 24° | 21° | 22° | 25° | 19–25° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 21° | 23° | 25° | 24° | 27° | 23° | 24° | 21–27° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 22° | 23° | 24° | 26° | 27° | 25° | 24° | 22–27° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 23° | 24° | 24° | 24° | 27° | 23° | 24° | 23–27° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 23° | 23° | 24° | 25° | 25° | 24° | 24° | 23–25° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 22° | 23° | 23° | 26° | 25° | 23° | 24° | 22–26° |
| actual | 22° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.