Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Sep 19?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 71° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 97° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 80° | 80° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 72° | 71° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 79° | 69° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 72° | 68° | — | 75° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 69° | 94° | 98° | — | 104° | — | — | 69–104° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 83° | 74° | 74° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 74° | 88° | 94° | 75° | — | — | 74–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 81° | 73° | 85° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 92° | 97° | 93° | 97° | 98° | — | 90–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 95° | 93° | 100° | 95° | 101° | 91° | 93° | 91–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 94° | 92° | 99° | 94° | 101° | 93° | 95° | 92–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 95° | 92° | 100° | 94° | 97° | 96° | 90° | 90–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 95° | 94° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 94° | 94–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 95° | 94° | 97° | 99° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 92–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 96° | 95° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 97° | 94° | 94–99° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.