Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Sep 19?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 22° to 26°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 27° | 26° | — | — | 36° | — | — | 26–36° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 24° | 22° | 22° | — | 26° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 26° | 21° | 25° | — | 29° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 28° | 22° | 20° | — | 24° | — | — | 20–28° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 21° | 34° | 37° | — | 40° | — | — | 21–40° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 28° | 24° | 23° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 29° | 24° | 31° | 34° | 24° | — | — | 24–34° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 27° | 23° | 29° | 33° | 32° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 32° | 33° | 36° | 34° | 36° | 37° | — | 32–37° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 35° | 34° | 38° | 35° | 38° | 33° | 34° | 33–38° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 35° | 33° | 37° | 34° | 38° | 34° | 35° | 33–38° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 35° | 33° | 38° | 34° | 36° | 36° | 32° | 32–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 35° | 36° | 35° | 35° | 35–37° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 35° | 35° | 36° | 37° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 33–37° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 35° | 35° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 36° | 35° | 35–37° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.