Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Sep 8?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 80° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 93° against the STL observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 80° | 84° | 82° | — | 103° | — | — | 80–103° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 86° | 98° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–98° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 80° | 106° | — | 105° | — | — | 80–106° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 83° | 102° | — | 106° | — | — | 83–106° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 85° | 101° | — | 99° | — | — | 85–101° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 89° | 84° | 103° | 91° | 96° | — | — | 84–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 89° | 84° | 92° | 100° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 100° | 94° | 96° | 85° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 93° | 99° | 95° | 92° | 106° | 99° | 97° | 92–106° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 92° | 97° | 96° | 101° | 99° | 90° | 88–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 90° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 100° | 96° | 98° | 90–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 93° | 91° | 95° | 92° | 99° | 95° | 93° | 91–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 90° | 94° | 88° | 99° | 94° | 91° | 88–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 93° | 91° | 92° | 98° | 95° | 94° | 93° | 91–98° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.