Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Sep 8?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 24° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the STL observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 25° | 30° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 29° | 24° | 32° | — | 31° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 22° | 27° | 41° | — | 40° | — | — | 22–41° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 33° | 23° | 31° | — | 32° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 31° | 38° | 40° | — | 38° | — | — | 31–40° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 30° | 30° | 31° | — | 31° | — | — | 30–31° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 32° | 30° | 36° | 33° | 42° | — | — | 30–42° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 34° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 40° | — | — | 34–40° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 35° | 37° | 36° | 35° | 40° | 38° | — | 35–40° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 33° | 35° | 36° | 33° | 40° | 38° | 34° | 33–40° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 31° | 34° | 36° | 36° | 38° | 37° | 32° | 31–38° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 34° | 33° | 35° | 32° | 38° | 34° | 35° | 32–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 34° | 32° | 35° | 33° | 37° | 35° | 33° | 32–37° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 34° | 33° | 34° | 36° | 37° | 34° | 34° | 33–37° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 34° | 34° | 34° | 36° | 35° | 35° | 34° | 34–36° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.