Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Sep 4?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
10 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 94° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 100° against the STL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 94° | 96° | 96° | — | 97° | — | — | 94–97° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 95° | 96° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 98° | 99° | 95° | 100° | 109° | — | — | 95–109° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 97° | 100° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 87–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 95° | 96° | 98° | 101° | 102° | — | 90–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 95° | 96° | 101° | 98° | 105° | 103° | 96° | 95–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 97° | 97° | 101° | 100° | 103° | 99° | 97° | 97–103° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 97° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 103° | 100° | 97° | 97–103° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 97° | 99° | 100° | 98° | 103° | 99° | 97° | 97–103° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 98° | 99° | 99° | 102° | 103° | 99° | 97° | 97–103° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 98° | 100° | 98° | 102° | 103° | 99° | 96° | 96–103° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.