The Spread

Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Sep 4?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

10 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 35° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the STL observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

10 days out the models said 35–36; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-25 35° 35° 35° — 36° — — 35–36°
9d · 2026-08-26 35° 36° 33° — 30° — — 30–36°
8d · 2026-08-27 36° 37° 35° 38° 43° — — 35–43°
7d · 2026-08-28 30° 36° 38° 37° 40° — — 30–40°
6d · 2026-08-29 32° 35° 36° 37° 38° 39° — 32–39°
5d · 2026-08-30 35° 36° 39° 37° 40° 39° 36° 35–40°
4d · 2026-08-31 36° 36° 39° 38° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
3d · 2026-09-01 36° 37° 38° 38° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-02 36° 37° 38° 37° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
1d · 2026-09-03 36° 37° 37° 39° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
0d · 2026-09-04 37° 38° 37° 39° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.