Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Aug 1?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 72° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 73° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 73° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 77° | 72° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 72° | 76° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 77° | 66° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 77° | 82° | 73° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 73° | 71° | 79° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 77° | 67° | 80° | 71° | 82° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 73° | 74° | 77° | 73° | 81° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 70° | 73° | 72° | 70° | 77° | 72° | — | 70–77° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 69° | 72° | 72° | 70° | 83° | 74° | 75° | 69–83° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 68° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 75° | 72° | 74° | 68–75° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 69° | 72° | 71° | 69° | 75° | 72° | 70° | 69–75° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 69° | 73° | 74° | 68° | 68–74° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 70° | 70–74° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 69° | 72° | 70° | 69–73° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.