Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Aug 1?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 22° to 28°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 23° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 23° | — | — | 27° | — | — | 23–27° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 25° | 22° | 22° | — | 28° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 22° | 24° | 27° | — | 24° | — | — | 22–27° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 25° | 19° | 25° | — | 28° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 25° | 28° | 23° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 23° | 22° | 26° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 25° | 20° | 27° | 22° | 28° | — | — | 20–28° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 23° | 23° | 25° | 23° | 27° | — | — | 23–27° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 21° | 23° | 22° | 21° | 25° | 22° | — | 21–25° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 28° | 23° | 24° | 21–28° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 20° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 24° | 22° | 24° | 20–24° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 24° | 22° | 21° | 21–24° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 20° | 23° | 23° | 20° | 20–23° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 21° | 21–23° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 20° | 22° | 21° | 20–23° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.