Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Jul 22?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Wed Jul 22 high anywhere from 81° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 88° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-17 | 81° | 87° | 86° | 82° | 94° | 84° | 89° | 81–94° |
| 4d · 2026-07-18 | 85° | 88° | 91° | 83° | 93° | 74° | 88° | 74–93° |
| 3d · 2026-07-19 | 86° | 90° | 90° | 82° | 98° | 79° | 91° | 79–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-20 | 85° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 87° | 88° | 85–92° |
| 1d · 2026-07-21 | 84° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 86° | 89° | 84–94° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.