Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Jul 22?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Wed Jul 22 high anywhere from 26° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-17 | 27° | 31° | 29° | 26° | 32° | 28° | 32° | 26–32° |
| 4d · 2026-07-18 | 28° | 32° | 33° | 27° | 34° | 28° | 31° | 27–34° |
| 3d · 2026-07-19 | 30° | 32° | 32° | 28° | 37° | 26° | 33° | 26–37° |
| 2d · 2026-07-20 | 30° | 33° | 32° | 27° | 36° | 30° | 31° | 27–36° |
| 1d · 2026-07-21 | 29° | 35° | 33° | 32° | 32° | 30° | 32° | 29–35° |
| 0d · 2026-07-22 | 29° | 34° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 30° | 31° | 29–34° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.