Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Mon Oct 5?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 68° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 71° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.9°. AIGFS ran 14° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 65° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–65° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 79° | 77° | — | 87° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 79° | 80° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 70° | 65° | — | 66° | — | — | 65–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 67° | 89° | 73° | — | 90° | — | — | 67–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 67° | 87° | 64° | — | 85° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 68° | 67° | 72° | 69° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 73° | 87° | 65° | 76° | 78° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 83° | 70° | 71° | 81° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 71° | 74° | 66° | 68° | 82° | 76° | 72° | 66–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 84° | 72° | 67° | 83° | 75° | 72° | 67–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 77° | 84° | 73° | 77° | 80° | 75° | 82° | 73–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 78° | 85° | 73° | 81° | 87° | 72° | 85° | 72–87° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 85° | 77° | 80° | 82° | 72° | 82° | 72–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 85° | 76° | 78° | 80° | 73° | 82° | 73–85° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.