Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Mon Oct 5?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 20° to 30°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 22° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIGFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 18° | — | — | 18° | — | — | 18–18° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 20° | 26° | 25° | — | 30° | — | — | 20–30° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 26° | 26° | 22° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 21° | 21° | 18° | — | 19° | — | — | 18–21° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 20° | 32° | 23° | — | 32° | — | — | 20–32° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 19° | 30° | 18° | — | 30° | — | — | 18–30° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 21° | 20° | 19° | 22° | 21° | — | — | 19–22° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 23° | 31° | 18° | 25° | 26° | — | — | 18–31° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 21° | 28° | 21° | 22° | 27° | — | — | 21–28° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 22° | 23° | 19° | 20° | 28° | 25° | 22° | 19–28° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 25° | 29° | 22° | 19° | 29° | 24° | 22° | 19–29° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 25° | 29° | 23° | 25° | 26° | 24° | 28° | 23–29° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 26° | 29° | 23° | 27° | 30° | 22° | 29° | 22–30° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 27° | 29° | 25° | 27° | 28° | 22° | 28° | 22–29° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 26° | 29° | 25° | 26° | 26° | 23° | 28° | 23–29° |
| actual | 22° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.