Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Sun Oct 4?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 63° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 86° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 68° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 68–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 74° | 63° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 71° | 83° | 70° | — | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 90° | 77° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 66° | 68° | 62° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 66° | 83° | 65° | — | 89° | — | — | 65–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 66° | 84° | 63° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 63–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 74° | 64° | 75° | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 76° | 90° | 63° | 77° | 78° | — | — | 63–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 85° | 66° | 74° | 79° | 72° | 63° | 63–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 75° | 70° | 68° | 81° | 73° | 89° | 68–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 83° | 85° | 75° | 70° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 70–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 88° | 75° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 91° | 75–91° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 86° | 87° | 82° | 80° | 88° | 78° | 87° | 78–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 85° | 86° | 88° | 80° | 85° | 76° | 83° | 76–88° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.