Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Sun Oct 4?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 17° to 28°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 30° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 20° | — | — | 22° | — | — | 20–22° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 28° | 24° | 17° | — | 20° | — | — | 17–28° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 22° | 28° | 21° | — | 32° | — | — | 21–32° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 24° | 32° | 25° | — | 28° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 19° | 20° | 16° | — | 24° | — | — | 16–24° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 19° | 28° | 18° | — | 32° | — | — | 18–32° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 19° | 29° | 17° | 26° | 27° | — | — | 17–29° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 21° | 24° | 18° | 24° | 27° | — | — | 18–27° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 24° | 32° | 17° | 25° | 26° | — | — | 17–32° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 23° | 29° | 19° | 23° | 26° | 22° | 17° | 17–29° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 22° | 24° | 21° | 20° | 27° | 23° | 32° | 20–32° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 28° | 29° | 24° | 21° | 28° | 28° | 28° | 21–29° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 29° | 31° | 24° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 33° | 24–33° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 30° | 31° | 28° | 26° | 31° | 26° | 31° | 26–31° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 30° | 30° | 31° | 27° | 30° | 24° | 28° | 24–31° |
| actual | 30° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.