Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Oct 22?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 71° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 73° against the SAN observations — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 73° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 73–74° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 71° | 84° | 95° | — | 83° | — | — | 71–95° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 84° | 94° | 82° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 70° | 80° | 80° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 75° | 75° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 76° | 73° | — | 76° | — | — | 73–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 71° | 70° | 73° | 68° | 70° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 69° | 74° | 68° | 71° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 69° | 72° | 68° | 69° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 68° | 72° | 65° | 71° | 74° | 70° | 65–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 69° | 70° | 70° | 66° | 69° | 70° | 73° | 66–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 69° | 69° | 71° | 69° | 71° | 74° | 75° | 69–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 69° | 68° | 70° | 67° | 70° | 73° | 74° | 67–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 69° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 70° | 71° | 73° | 67–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 68° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 66–72° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.