Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Oct 22?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 22° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 21°. The day verified at 23° against the SAN observations — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 23° | — | — | 23° | — | — | 23–23° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 22° | 29° | 35° | — | 28° | — | — | 22–35° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 29° | 34° | 28° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 21° | 27° | 26° | — | 27° | — | — | 21–27° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 22° | 24° | 24° | — | 30° | — | — | 22–30° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 25° | 23° | — | 24° | — | — | 23–25° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 21° | 21° | 23° | 20° | 21° | — | — | 20–23° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 19° | 21° | 24° | 20° | 21° | — | — | 19–24° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 18° | 20° | 22° | 20° | 21° | — | — | 18–22° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 19° | 20° | 22° | 19° | 21° | 23° | 21° | 19–23° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 20° | 21° | 21° | 19° | 21° | 21° | 23° | 19–23° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 21° | 21° | 22° | 20° | 21° | 23° | 24° | 20–24° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 20° | 20° | 21° | 19° | 21° | 23° | 23° | 19–23° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 20° | 20° | 20° | 20° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 20–23° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 20° | 20° | 22° | 19° | 21° | 22° | 22° | 19–22° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.