Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sun Oct 11?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 72° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 73° against the SAN observations, with 0.29 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 79° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 95° | 85° | 97° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 93° | 84° | 104° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–104° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 87° | 101° | 91° | — | 90° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 68° | 78° | — | 75° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 77° | 78° | 80° | — | 81° | — | — | 77–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 85° | 78° | 100° | 79° | — | — | 72–100° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 70° | 82° | 77° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 74° | 85° | 77° | 76° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 77° | 77° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 81° | 87° | 74–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 80° | 83° | 76° | 84° | 76° | 77° | 73–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 72° | 72–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 71° | 74° | 79° | 70° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 70–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 70° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 70–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 70° | 74° | 72° | 71° | 75° | 72° | 72° | 70–75° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.