Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sun Oct 11?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 22° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 23° against the SAN observations, with 7.4 mm of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 26° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 35° | 30° | 36° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–36° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 34° | 29° | 40° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–40° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 30° | 38° | 33° | — | 32° | — | — | 30–38° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 23° | 20° | 26° | — | 24° | — | — | 20–26° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 25° | 26° | 27° | — | 27° | — | — | 25–27° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 22° | 30° | 25° | 38° | 26° | — | — | 22–38° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 21° | 28° | 25° | 26° | 27° | — | — | 21–28° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 23° | 23° | 29° | 25° | 24° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 25° | 25° | 23° | 24° | 24° | 27° | 30° | 23–30° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 23° | 26° | 28° | 25° | 29° | 25° | 25° | 23–29° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 22° | 23° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 22° | 22–26° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 22° | 24° | 26° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 21–26° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 21–23° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 21° | 23° | 22° | 22° | 24° | 22° | 22° | 21–24° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.