Was the forecast right for San Diego on Tue Oct 6?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 81° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 93° against the SAN observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 84° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 97° | 92° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 90° | 85° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 92° | 98° | 105° | — | 97° | — | — | 92–105° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 90° | 100° | 88° | — | 90° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 95° | 95° | 102° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 96° | 104° | 93° | 89° | 76° | — | — | 76–104° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 97° | 92° | 104° | 97° | 84° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 94° | 88° | 96° | 94° | 89° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 92° | 95° | 101° | 90° | 91° | 95° | 96° | 90–101° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 94° | 95° | 103° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 96° | 90–103° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 93° | 98° | 102° | 94° | 92° | 93° | 102° | 92–102° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 95° | 95° | 101° | 93° | 90° | 95° | 101° | 90–101° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 95° | 94° | 103° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 101° | 90–103° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 95° | 94° | 102° | 94° | 90° | 94° | 101° | 90–102° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.