Was the forecast right for San Diego on Tue Oct 6?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 27° to 32°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 34° against the SAN observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 29° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 29–35° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 36° | 33° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 32° | 32° | 29° | — | 27° | — | — | 27–32° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 34° | 36° | 41° | — | 36° | — | — | 34–41° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 32° | 38° | 31° | — | 32° | — | — | 31–38° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 35° | 35° | 39° | — | 31° | — | — | 31–39° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 36° | 40° | 34° | 32° | 25° | — | — | 25–40° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 36° | 33° | 40° | 36° | 29° | — | — | 29–40° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 34° | 31° | 36° | 34° | 32° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 34° | 35° | 38° | 32° | 33° | 35° | 35° | 32–38° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 35° | 35° | 39° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 35° | 32–39° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 34° | 36° | 39° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 39° | 34–39° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 35° | 35° | 38° | 34° | 32° | 35° | 38° | 32–38° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 35° | 35° | 40° | 33° | 32° | 35° | 38° | 32–40° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 35° | 34° | 39° | 35° | 32° | 34° | 38° | 32–39° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.