Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sat Aug 29?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
4 days out, 7 models put San Diego's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 83° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 87° against the SAN observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. ECMWF ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 88° | 100° | 84° | 83° | 87° | 93° | 83–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 88° | 98° | 86° | 82° | 86° | 90° | 82–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 89° | 88° | 97° | 87° | 84° | 87° | 92° | 84–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 91° | 97° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 94° | 85–97° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.