Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sat Aug 29?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
4 days out, 7 models put San Diego's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 28° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 31° against the SAN observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 31° | 38° | 29° | 28° | 30° | 34° | 28–38° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 31° | 37° | 30° | 28° | 30° | 32° | 28–37° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 32° | 31° | 36° | 31° | 29° | 31° | 33° | 29–36° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 32° | 33° | 36° | 32° | 29° | 31° | 34° | 29–36° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.